Posted at 05 February 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Dec Trade Balance 22.2B,19.0B forecast,20.4Bprevious
•German Dec Exports (MoM) -4.6%,-2.0% forecast,3.7%previous
•German Dec Imports (MoM) -6.7%,-1.5% forecast,1.9% previous
•Italian Jan Composite PMI 50.7,48.6 previous
• Italian Jan Services PMI 51.2 ,50.7 forecast,49.8 previous
• French Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 44.6,44.2 forecast,44.8previous
• French Services PMI 45.4,45.0 forecast,45.7 previous
•German Jan Composite PMI 47.0,47.1 forecast,47.4 previous
• German Jan Services PMI 47.7,47.6 forecast,49.3 previous
•EU Jan Services PMI 48.4,48.4 forecast,48.8 previous
•EU Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 47.9,47.9 forecast, 47.6 previous
•UK Jan Composite PMI 52.9,52.5 forecast, 52.1 previous
•EU Feb Sentix Investor Confidence -12.9,-15.0 forecast,-15.8 previous
•UK Jan Services PMI 54.3,53.8 forecast,53.4 previous
•EU Dec PPI (YoY) -10.6%,-10.5% forecast,-8.8% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.239% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.822% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.687% previous
•14:45 US Jan S&P Global Composite PMI 52.3 forecast,50.9 previous
•14:45 US Jan Services PMI 52.9 forecast,51.4 previous
•15:00 US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders 52.8 previous
•15:00 US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment 43.3 previous
•15:00 US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 52.0 forecast,50.6 previous
•15:00 US Jan Total Vehicle Sales 15.70M forecast,15.83M previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.985% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.210% previous
•15:00 US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices 57.4 previous
•15:00 US Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 56.6 previous
•15:00 US Jan CB Employment Trends Index 113.15 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:30 UK BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
•19:00 FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined sharply against dollar on Monday after showed that German exports fell more than expected in December due to weak global demand. German exports fell more than expected in December due to weak global demand, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday, underlining concerns about the health of Europe's biggest economy that may be slipping back into recession. Exports fell by 4.6% in December compared with the previous month. The result compared with a forecast 2.0% decrease in a poll.Germany's ailing economy had a bumpy start to the year with exports sinking, farmers launching nationwide protests, train drivers striking for days and heated debates among coalition partners on how to foster economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0798(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0828 ( 38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0745(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0728(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound dropped to its lowest level since mid-December following a robust U.S. jobs report and statements made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which collectively strengthened the dollar. Friday's data revealed that U.S. job growth in January exceeded expectations by a significant margin, accompanied by solid wage growth. These numbers prompted investors to reassess their expectations of a potential rate cut by the Fed in March, leading to an increase in bond yields and strengthening the dollar. Sterling fell to $1.2581, its lowest since Dec. 17, and last traded 0.32% lower at $1.2593. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2636(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2724(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2543(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2465(61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar strengthened against Swiss franc on Monday as last week as a U.S. jobs report boosted the dollar. Data from the U.S. Labor Department showed on Friday that non-farm payrolls increased by 353,000 jobs in January, almost double the 180,000 forecast by economists polled.The Fed can be prudent in deciding when to cut its benchmark interest rate, with a strong economy allowing central bankers time to build confidence that inflation will fall further, Powell said in an interview. According to the CME Fed Watch, opens new tab Tool, traders now expect about a 65% chance of a U.S. rate cut in May. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8711(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8748(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8640(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8572(61.8%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Monday as traders clawed back bets for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.The Fed repricing has followed Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report that far exceeded market expectations and sent U.S. dollar soaring . According to data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Friday, non-farm payrolls surged by 353,000 jobs in January, nearly doubling the forecast of 180,000 by economists surveyed The main event on the economic calendar is the ISM non-manufacturing survey later in the day, which will give a sense of the health of the U.S. economy in January. Japan's yen fell to its lowest since early December trade at 148.62 per dollar . Strong resistance can be seen at 147.18(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.66(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.01 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.98(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares pared earlier gains to be nearly flat on Monday as upbeat corporate reports were outweighed by broader subdued sentiment as investors reassessed their interest rate cut expectations.
At (GMT 13:08 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.49 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.00 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices slipped to a one-week low on Monday after a robust U.S. jobs data last week and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dented hopes for early rate cuts, lifting the dollar and bond yields higher.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $2,025.99 per ounce by 1214 GMT, hitting its lowest since Jan. 29. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $2,042.60 per ounce.
Oil prices slipped again on Monday as a strong U.S. job report which capped sharp falls last week dampened hopes of swift rate cuts, despite a U.S. pledge to continue air strikes in the Middle East which have kept geopolitical tensions high.
Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 0.8%, to $76.68 a barrel by 1105 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were at $71.52 a barrel, down 76 cents, or 1%.