Posted at 20 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Canada Nov Core Retail Sales (MoM) -0.5%,-0.1% forecast,0.6% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2%,0.0% forecast,0.7% previous
•US Dec Existing Home Sales (MoM) -1.0%, 0.8% previous
•US Dec Existing Home Sales 3.78M,3.82M forecast,3.82M previous
•US Jan Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.8%, 2.9% previous
•US Jan Michigan Current Conditions 83.3, 73.3 previous
•US Jan Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9%, 3.1% previous
•US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 70.0 forecast,69.7 previous
•US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 75.9,67.4 previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.4%,2.4% forecast,2.4% previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 497,499 previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 620,619 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher on Friday as recent economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of rapid cuts in interest rates. A sunnier-than-expected consumer sentiment reading added to the list of solid economic data released this week, notably retail sales and jobless claims. The robust indicators dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting its key policy rate as soon as March, while also providing assurance that the U.S. economy was under no immediate threat of recession. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was down 0.08% at 103.26, on pace to snap a five-session win streak, but was up 0.8% on the week. The euro up 0.18% to $1.0894.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0955(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0868(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound declined on Friday, after a shock drop in British consumer spending in December raised the risk of recession, putting a stop to the currency's recent gains. British retailers suffered the biggest drop in sales for almost three years during December, raising the risk that the economy slipped into recession late last year, official data showed on Friday. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said people doing Christmas shopping earlier than usual especially for food - contributed to retail sales volumes shrinking 3.2% between December and November. It was the biggest monthly drop since January 2021 and left the level of sales at its lowest ebb since May 2020.The reading was worse than all forecasts in a poll of economists which had pointed to a 0.5% fall. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2799(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2633 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2592(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian strengthened versus the US dollar on Friday, recouping much of this week's losses, as an uptick in investor risk appetite outweighed domestic data indicating a surprising drop in retail sales. The Canadian dollar rose as the US dollar relinquished some of its recent gains against a basket of foreign currencies and the S&P 500 set an intraday record for the first time in two years. Canadian retail sales decreased 0.2% in November compared to October, falling short of expectations for a flat reading, however preliminary estimates projected a rebound in December. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.9% lower at $73.41 a barrel but still posted a weekly gain, supported by Middle East tensions.The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3440 to the greenback , after trading in a range of 1.3437 to 1.3502.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3466 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3542 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3412(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3354(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Friday as investors became less sure the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in March. A steady stream of Fed officials, starting with Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday, have pushed back on market expectations the central bank will embark on a path of fast reductions to interest rates. Waller said the Fed should proceed "methodically and carefully" until it is clear lower inflation will be sustained. On Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said weeks more of inflation data need to be in hand before any decision could be made to cut interest rates. In addition, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said there is still a lot of work left to do on inflation and it is premature to think rate cuts are around the corner. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.89(23.6% fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.42(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 148.00(Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 147.25(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European markets fell for the week on Friday as investors lowered their expectations of major central banks cutting borrowing costs this year, with the emphasis now fully on the European Central Bank's upcoming policy meeting.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.04 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.07 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.40 percent.
The S&P 500 , opens new tab posted a record high close on Friday for the first time in two years, fueled by a rally in chipmakers and other heavyweight technology stocks on optimism around artificial intelligence..
Dow Jones closed up by 1.05% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.23% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.70% percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged lower, pausing after several sessions of gains.
Benchmark 10-year notes were last down rose 3/32 in price to yield 4.1341%, from 4.144% late on Thursday. The 30-year bond rose 16/32 in price to yield 4.3437%, down from 4.372%.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Friday, but was on track to post its worst weekly loss in six years, as remarks from Federal Reserve members this week decreased prospects of an early rate drop.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,027.49 per ounce by 02:02 p.m. ET (1902 GMT), but was down 1% so far in the week.U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2029.3.
Oil prices fell slightly on Friday but rose weekly as Middle East tensions and interruptions in oil supply countered concerns about the Chinese and global economies.
Brent futures settled 54 cents lower at $78.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 67 cents to settle at $73.41.
For the week, Brent gained about 0.5% while the U.S. benchmark rose over 1%.