Posted at 10 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French Nov Industrial Production (MoM) 0.5%, 0.0%forecast,-0.3% previous
•Italian Nov Retail Sales (MoM) 0.4%,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•Italian Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 1.5%,0.3% previous
•Greek Nov Industrial Production (YoY) 3.1%, 10.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•15:00 US Nov Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) -1.3% previous
•15:00 US Nov Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-0.4% previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.675M forecast, -5.503M previous
•18:00 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.2% forecast,2.2% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•15:15 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
•14:00 EU ECB's Schnabel Speaks
•20:15 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data later this week. Investors' focus remains squarely on the December consumer and producer inflation reports due on Thursday and Friday, respectively, as they could help determine the Fed's policy path.Market participants have scaled back expectations for at least a 25 basis point cut in March, and currently see a 63% chance, down from around 86% in the last week of 2023, as per the CME FedWatch Tool. The euro gained 0.16% to $1.0949 against dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0981(Jan 7th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0928(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling held steady on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey to British MPs, with markets looking for signals on the direction of monetary policy. BoE Governor Bailey and other prominent central bank officials are scheduled to answer questions from the Treasury Committee at 1415 GMT regarding the Financial Stability Report released on December 6th. Bailey's testimony precedes an important update on UK gross domestic product (GDP) set for Friday. Projections anticipate a 0.1% contraction in the economy for the three months leading up to November. Sterling edged 0.14% higher against the dollar at $1.2728. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors awaited important inflation data that may provide some guidance on whether the Federal Reserve would start lowering interest rates this year. Thursday's U.S. consumer and producer inflation numbers, are expected to show that headline inflation rose 0.2% in December and 3.2% year-on-year. Additionally, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman altered her previously held hawkish stance on Monday, suggesting that U.S. monetary policy has now become adequately restrictive. As per the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is currently projecting roughly a 68% probability of a rate reduction at the Fed's March 19-20 policy gathering. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8588(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8678(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8470(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8382(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday as traders geared for a key U.S. inflation print later this week. The focal point for markets this week is the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data. According to economists surveyed , the year-on-year inflation is expected to reach 3.2% in December, slightly up from 3.1% in the previous period. However, they anticipate that core inflation likely dropped to 3.8%, its lowest level since mid-2021, down from 4%. Dollar strengthen 0.34% to 144.96 per per yen, inching closer to the 145 mark. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.44(Higher BB),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.44( 38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.86(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 143.81(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Wednesday, hurt by a decline in basic resources shares as lower metal prices weighed, while investors assessed corporate earnings and geared for a key U.S. inflation print later this week.
At (GMT 12:54 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.26 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.02 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged up on Wednesday ahead of a critical inflation report that could offer some clues on whether the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year.
Spot gold gained 0.2% to $2,033.90 per ounce, as of 1148 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,040.00 per ounce.
Oil rose for a second day on Wednesday after an industry report showed a bigger-than-expected drawdown of crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil user, that bolstered demand sentiment.
Brent crude futures rose 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $77.89 a barrel at 0524 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.60 a barrel.