Posted at 09 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate n.s.a. 2.3%,2.1%previous
•Swiss Dec Unemployment Rate s.a. 2.2%,2.2% forecast,2.1% previous
•German Nov Industrial Production (YoY) -4.87%,-3.38% previous
•German Nov German Industrial Production (MoM) -0.7%,0.2% forecast,-0.4% previous
•French Nov Exports 49.5B,49.7B previous
•French Nov French Trade Balance -5.9B,-7.9B forecast,-8.6B previous
•French Nov French Imports 55.4B,58.3B previous
•French Nov French Current Account -2.80B, -2.90B previous
•EU Nov Unemployment Rate 6.4%,6.5% forecast,6.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 US Nov Trade Balance -65.00B forecast,-64.30B previous
•13:30 US Imports 323.00B previous
•13:30 US Exports 258.80B previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Building Permits (MoM) -1.7% forecast,2.3% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Imports 63.01B previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Trade Balance 2.00B forecast,2.97B previous
•13:30 Canada Exports 65.98B previous
•13:55 US Redbook (YoY) 5.6% previous
•15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 42.0 forecast, 40.0 previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.5% forecast,2.5% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday as investors were anticipating additional economic data to evaluate the European Central Bank's monetary policy path for the year ahead. Negatively impacting market sentiment, German industrial production unexpectedly dropped in November compared to the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0981(Jan 7th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0928(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0853(50%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound weakened slightly against the dollar but remained close to a five-month high reached late last year as drop was driven by expectations that the Bank of England would potentially reduce interest rates at a later time compared to the Federal Reserve. Currently, markets anticipate the Bank of England (BoE) to commence reducing interest rates during the May meeting. In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to start easing its policy as soon as March, given that inflation in the UK is more persistent. Consumer price inflation stood at 3.9% in the UK in November, marking the highest among the G7 nations. However, this figure is lower than the peak of 11.1% recorded in November 2022. Sterling slipped 0.1% to $1.2737. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2754(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Tuesday as traders awaited inflation data from the U.S. for clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance this year . Comments from Fed officials overnight helped soothe sentiment, with Governor Michelle Bowman retreating from her persistently hawkish view and Atlanta President Raphael Bostic reiterating his earlier view that he does anticipate rate reductions this year. Traders are awaiting U.S. inflation data for December due later in the week for an indication of when the Fed might start cutting interest rates. Markets are now anticipating a 62% chance that the Fed could begin easing rates as early as March, compared with a nearly 90% chance a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8551(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8581(Dec26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8447(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8354(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Tuesday as traders reevaluated their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, prompted by a report indicating that consumers anticipate lower inflation for the year. The New York (NY) Fed survey released on Monday showed consumers see a decrease in inflation as well as slower gains in household earnings and spending over the next several years. Last week's stronger-than-expected job numbers, combined with the latest Fed minutes, which expressed ambiguity about the timing of rate reductions, dampened expectations for an early policy easing in the U.S.According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market currently expects a 58% chance of a rate cut during the Fed's March 19-20 policy meeting. Strong resistance can be seen at 144.68(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 145.85(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 143.62(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.70(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped on Tuesday as investors awaited more economic data to assess the European Central Bank's monetary policy trajectory for the year.
At (GMT 13:10 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.41 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.43 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday after touching a three-week low in the previous session as traders reassessed interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve after a report showed consumers expect lower inflation this year.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,037.50 per ounce, as of 1032 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since Dec. 18 on Monday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,043.90 per ounce.
Oil prices rose by more than $1 on Tuesday after sliding in the previous session as markets weighed Middle East tensions against demand worries and rising OPEC supply.
Brent crude futures rose $1.33, or 1.75%, to $77.45 a barrel at 1131 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained $1.29, or 1.82%, to $72.06 a barrel.