Posted at 08 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Nov Imports (MoM) 1.9%,0.2%forecast,-1.2%previous
•German Nov Exports (MoM) 3.7%,0.3% forecast,-0.2% previous
•German Nov Trade Balance 20.4B,17.9B forecast,17.8B previous
•German Nov Factory Orders (MoM) 0.3%,1.0% forecast,-3.7% previous
•Swiss Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 0.7%,0.0% forecast,-0.1% previous
•Swiss Dec CPI (MoM) 0.0%,-0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•Swiss Dec CPI (YoY) 1.7%,1.5% forecast,1.4% previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment -9.2 forecast,-9.5 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation 10.5 forecast, 9.3 previous
•EU Nov Retail Sales (YoY)-1.1% ,-1.5% forecast,-1.2% previous
•EU Nov Retail Sales (MoM) -0.3%,-0.3% forecast,0.1% previous
•EU Services Sentiment 8.4 forecast, 4.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.757% previous
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.215% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.663% previous
•15:00 US Dec CB Employment Trends Index 113.05 previous
•15:00 US Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.40% previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.245% previous
•16:30 6-Month Bill Auction 5.045% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other relreases(GMT)
•17:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Monday as fading expectations of an early rate cut in the U.S. kept the dollar supported. On the data front, German industrial orders rose less than expected, while exports rose more than forecast in November. Eurozone retail sales declined as expected in November due to the weakness in food and non-food turnover, official data showed on Monday.Retail sales registered a monthly fall of 0.3 percent, reversing the 0.4 percent rise in October, Eurostat reported. The euro was little changed at $1.0934, bruised after a 0.9% fall last week brought its recent rally to a sudden end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0989(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0911(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0839 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling was flat against dollar on Monday as investors looked ahead to a slew of economic datasets this week. British economy holding up and will be tested this week by remarks on Wednesday by Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey before Parliament and monthly GDP data due Friday. The pound dipped 0.18% against the dollar to $1.2696, slightly nearer the top than the bottom of its recent range. Geopolitical tensions were also on the radar of investors as disruptions in the Red Sea raised shipping costs in Europe, while the Israeli conflict with Hamas threatened to spread to Lebanon.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2734(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2778(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2580 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2493(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar was little against Swiss franc on Monday as investors globally reassessed their U.S. rate cut bets. A reading on U.S. inflation due on Thursday is expected to provide some clarity on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, data from the United States last week showed employers hired more workers than expected in December while raising wages at a solid clip, casting some doubt on expectations that the Federal Reserve would start cutting key interest rates in its March meeting. . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8591(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8661(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8483(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8379(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as investors braced for U.S. inflation data. U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in December, official data showed, but separate data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that the services sector slowed considerably last month. Market participants are pricing in an about 64% chance of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank in March, down from a nearly 90% probability seen before the New Year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors awaited Thursday's U.S. consumer price inflation report for further direction on the Federal Reserve's pace and scale ofrate cuts. Strong resistance can be seen at 145.25(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 146.65(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 144.18(50%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 142.86(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged lower on Monday, extending their lacklustre start to the year as tepid energy shares dragged the index, while a rise in government bond yields weighed on risk sentiment.
At (GMT 13:10 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.26 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday as fading expectations of an early rate cut in the U.S. kept the dollar and bond yields supported, ahead of a key inflation print due later this week.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $2,037.39 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $2,043.60 per ounce.
Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday on sharp price cuts by top exporter Saudi Arabia and a rise in OPEC output, offsetting supply concerns generated by escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
Brent crude slid 2.2%, or $1.74, to $77.02 a barrel by 1024 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures shed 2.3%, or $1.73, to $72.08.